Mt.Gox Asset Distribution
The return of assets to Mt.Gox clients has concluded. The bankruptcy trustee holds 32,900 BTC worth $2.1 billion. The final large tranche of nearly 50,000 BTC was distributed on July 31.
Market Impact
In July, the German government sold 50,000 BTC, and rumors suggest the U.S. government may sell 204,000 BTC. Consequently, Bitcoin’s price faced pressure, and its 30-day volatility rose from 1.5% to 2.3%.
ETF Inflows and Political Promises
U.S. spot ETFs, a major driver for 2024, showed weak inflows recently. Even Trump and Kennedy’s weekend promises to create a national Bitcoin reserve didn’t boost investor optimism.
August Outlook
August might continue this trend. Historically, Bitcoin prices closed negatively five out of seven times in this month. Consolidation may persist.
Positive News
The impact of negative factors is ending. Short-term holders are taking profits, while long-term holders and whales are accumulating Bitcoin.
Accumulation Trends
According to IntoTheBlock, large holders (0.1% or more of circulating supply) bought 84,000 BTC worth $5.4 billion during July’s correction. This is the largest natural increase in nine years.
Positive Market Expectations
Positive market events are anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a policy shift. CME’s FedWatch Tool predicts a rate cut in September: 70% chance of a ¼ point cut, 30% of a ½ point cut.
Long-Term Effects
A key rate cut will increase the U.S. dollar’s money supply and weaken it against limited-supply assets like gold and Bitcoin.
