Repeating Cycles and New Factors
Despite new factors like the Bitcoin ETF launch and Mt. Gox funds return, the current cycle mirrors previous price movements. Remarkably, the yield from the cycle’s start is the same 250%, as seen in the 2015-18 and 2018-22 periods.
Impact of Halving and Price Changes
Price changes from the halving date show similar patterns with minor differences. When a new price record is set, whales and long-term holders naturally take profits, cooling the market.
Post-Correction Accumulation
After significant corrections, whales return to accumulation. CryptoQuant notes whales are buying at the fastest rate since April 2023, increasing their holdings by 6.3% monthly.
Accumulation Wallet Dynamics
Accumulation wallets (two or more incoming, no outgoing transactions, excluding miners, exchanges, and ETFs) also show strong growth. Over the last 30 days, they accumulated 85,000 BTC, outweighing annual pressure from Mt. Gox. CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju states, “While some panic sell, others buy.”
Anticipating Sustained Growth
Based on previous cycles, a few months may pass before returning to sustained growth. This aligns with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, expected to pivot no earlier than the September meeting. A rate cut could weaken the US dollar and boost interest in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Optimistic Projections
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called the recent pullback “a stroke of luck” in a July 10 note to investors. He predicts Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 in the second half of the year.
