Bitcoin’s Performance in June
Bitcoin ended June with a 7% drop. This was the second month in 2024 with a decline. In April, it lost almost 15%. Other months showed growth, ranging from 1% to 44%. Overall, Bitcoin dropped 12% in the second quarter.
Historical Data and July Trends
According to Coinglass, July usually sees growth. The average increase is 7.3%. Since 2013, there have been seven successful months with growth up to 24%. Five losing months had drops no lower than 10%.
Positive seasonality in July, along with improved liquidity, could support the market, according to analysts from Coinbase.
Signs of a Strong July
Analysts from QCP Capital in Singapore also noted Bitcoin’s tendency for a strong rebound after a negative June. Many signs point to a bullish July.
Challenges and Corrections
CoinFactiva analysts highlight fundamental metrics that hinder cryptocurrency growth. Market capitalization fell in June, and expectations for BTC to reach $74,000 were unmet. Factors like Mt. Gox sales, minor US inflation reduction, and miner pressure contributed to the benchmark’s weakness. Mt. Gox Bitcoin distribution in mid-July is surrounded by rumors, which is not positive for the market.
Market Expectations
Experts foresee global crypto market growth but have low hopes for July. The likelihood of continued BTC growth remains. Bitcoin’s range since March is seen as structural correction despite negative factors, not signaling a trend change.
Potential Token Strength
Expecting Bitcoin and overall market capitalization growth in July is naive. Some tokens might outperform, similar to the Real World Assets (RWA) sector in June, the second most profitable sector in 2024.
Market Trends and Summer Outlook
The market might mirror last summer, where cryptocurrencies fell and only rose in late autumn. Experts consider a possible downward trend and BTC dropping below $56,000-$58,000. Acceptable levels for buying may not appear until late summer.
Ethereum ETF as a Growth Driver
The upcoming Ethereum ETF approval is a potential growth driver. The market outlook is mixed.
Importance of Ethereum ETF Launch
The key is how ETH price behaves in the weeks following the ETF trading launch. If the market shows strength, the recent price dynamics might be the climax of sales, signaling a good time to buy altcoins. If the market weakens, interest in crypto assets might return no earlier than autumn. Thus, July and August might be a time to rest and gather strength for a rally.
Learning from Bitcoin ETF Launch
After spot Bitcoin-ETF approval in early 2024, BTC lost 20% in the first two weeks, coinciding with a $2 billion outflow from Grayscale’s fund.
Potential Impact on Ethereum
If Ethereum faces similar pressure, it may struggle, especially given its weak performance in the past six months.
