Today, on July 1, 2024, Bitcoin Trades at $62.8K, gaining 2.3%
| 24h Range | $61,261.95 – $63,694.73 |
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On Sunday, June 30, Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $61.4K. Its price dropped about 4% over the past week. CoinFactiva experts analyzed the market and assessed Bitcoin’s price movement prospects for the next seven days.
Market Volatility
Two weeks ago, Bitcoin’s market showed high volatility, trading between $58,402 and $63,369. By week’s end, BTC/USDt fell 3.54%. On June 24, BTC plummeted below $60K, reaching a low of $58,402.
Factors Behind the Decline
Several factors caused the drop, including Mt. Gox announcing creditor payments starting July 2024. This raised fears of a Bitcoin dump. Additionally, there was a steady outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, a reduction in miner reserves, and a large Bitcoin transfer by German authorities to exchanges.
Attempted Recovery
On June 25, the market tried to recover, reaching $62,487. However, it couldn’t maintain gains due to a strong US dollar and low buyer activity. Buyers couldn’t break the $62,500 resistance level. Consequently, Bitcoin stabilized around $61,500.
Midweek Drop
On June 28, Bitcoin fell 2.07% to $60,427. Before the US session, BTC/USDt traded at $61,800, then dropped to $60,063. Buyers failed again to push towards $62,500, retreating after economic data and stock index declines.
Dollar and Treasury Yields
The dollar showed minor drops after initial growth. This was partially offset by May PCE data, indicating slowing US inflation. Despite this, US Treasury yields supported the dollar, maintaining high interest rates across 2, 5, and 10-year bonds.
Federal Reserve Outlook
High Treasury yields increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 66%, up from 64%, according to CME Fedwatch. Attention now turns to June labor data. The US economy remains resilient, and inflation signals will influence the Fed’s rate decisions.
Regulatory Pressure and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin remained stable above $60K despite US macroeconomic data. Uncertainty persists due to heightened regulatory pressure on the US crypto market, especially Binance.US’s licensing issues. This reflects a broader trend of increased regulation by US authorities.
Upcoming Economic Events
Expect higher volatility from July 1 to 7 due to a busy economic calendar. Key events include US manufacturing and services indices, a speech by Fed Chair Powell, FOMC minutes, and the US labor market report. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Powell will also speak at the ECB Forum.
Mid-Term Bitcoin Trend
The mid-term Bitcoin trend remains bullish, though local corrections slowed growth. According to CoinFactiva, overcoming $62,500 and $64,600 is crucial for increased buyer activity. The $60K level is still at risk of breaking.
Optimism and Future Prospects
Two weeks ago it was marked a turning point for the crypto market. The fear and greed index fell to a six-month low of 30, indicating fear. Bitcoin struggled to hit new highs post-April halving and faced strong bearish pressure, dropping below $60K.
Market Reactions
On June 24, Bitcoin’s weighted average fell to $59,236, losing over $4,000 in a day. This decline was triggered by Mt. Gox’s payout announcement, sparking fears of market impact despite expected off-exchange transactions.
Regulatory Impact
The Fed’s stance on maintaining high rates dampens investor appetite for risky assets. Without positive news, traders remain neutral or pessimistic, reducing crypto exposure. However, several factors could drive market growth soon.
Positive Outlook
Rumors suggest the SEC might approve a spot Ethereum ETF in the US next week. This could signal stronger synergy with traditional finance. An ETH ETF would attract institutional capital to Ethereum and the DeFi market.
Anticipated Fed Minutes
Traders eagerly await the Fed’s June meeting minutes, released on July 3. These could reveal readiness for rate cuts in fall 2024. Additionally, debates between US presidential candidates weakened the Democrats’ stance, potentially favoring the crypto industry if Republicans gain power.
Short-Term Bitcoin Prospects
Bitcoin needs to break out of the $58,000 to $61,000 range. A bearish outlook could push Bitcoin below $55,000. Conversely, rising optimism might propel it above $64,000.
