Mixed Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains divided, preventing Bitcoin from breaking the $50-70K range for seven months. Short-term holders (STH) add pressure by selling during price drops. For instance, on October 11, STH sold 24,000 BTC worth $1.5 billion in one day. This caused a price drop below $60K.
In total, over the past six months, STH have sold 0.97 million BTC. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTH) accumulated 1.06 million BTC during the same period. The difference is due to missing exchange and miner addresses from the statistics.
Long-term Holders’ Confidence
LTH are motivated by Bitcoin’s favorable long-term outlook. First, Bitcoin secured its status as a commodity and investment asset when the SEC approved spot ETFs. Additionally, Bitcoin’s deflationary model appeals to investors concerned with fiat currency inflation. With global regulators returning to money printing, Bitcoin stands out.
Pierre Rochard, vice president of mining company Riot Platforms, recently predicted a “crazy decade” ahead for Bitcoin. He noted that top investment firms now echo Bitcoin maximalists’ arguments about its superiority over fiat.
Whale Accumulation and Institutional Support
Institutional capital shares the optimism. Over the past six months, whales (addresses holding 1,000+ BTC) have accumulated 1.5 million BTC.
Investment in spot ETFs has declined since mid-summer, but the results are still impressive. As of Friday, total inflows reached $19 billion, making it the best-performing ETF launched this year.
Political Uncertainty and Future Prospects
Bitcoin’s recent stagnation is partly due to political uncertainty, with the upcoming U.S. presidential election playing a key role. Candidates have opposite views on crypto regulation, which could either lead to stricter laws or more favorable conditions.
Bitcoin might reach $100K this year if Donald Trump wins, as he calls himself the “first crypto president.”
