Memecoins Reflecting Presidential Candidates Surge
Memecoins linked to names of potential Biden replacements surged in the last 24 hours. These coins, such as those linked to Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, saw significant gains.
Betting on Biden’s Withdrawal
Since late June, bets on Polymarket predicting Biden’s withdrawal have surged. Nearly $10 million is pooled, with 75% betting on a positive outcome.
Bitcoin’s Movement and the Presidential Race
Standard Chartered analysts believe Bitcoin’s price partially depends on Biden’s candidacy status. They predict Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the election, with Trump’s victory being the optimistic scenario.
Key Date for Biden’s Decision
August 4 is crucial for Biden’s decision, as Ohio’s laws require presidential candidates to be registered by this date. There’s a 50% chance Biden will withdraw before the Democratic Party convention on August 19.
Democratic Party’s Contingency Plan
The New York Times reports that Democratic leaders have a plan if Biden exits. The most direct path is nominating Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a 16% chance of winning if she runs.
Surge in Crypto Prediction Markets
With the 2024 US presidential election approaching, crypto prediction markets have seen a spike. Polymarket recorded over $300 million in political bets.
Popular Prediction Markets
The most popular market is forecasting the November election results. As of July 3, Polymarket rated Trump’s election chances at 63% and Biden’s at 13%.
Memecoins and Political Sentiments
Memecoins tied to candidates’ names gained traction. Kamala Harris-themed coins rose by 15%, and Gavin Newsom-themed coins surged by 250%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. themed coins increased by 10%.
Decline in Biden and Trump-Themed Memecoins
Conversely, Jeo Boden-themed memecoins dropped over 30%. Trump-themed coins, such as Super Trump and MAGA, declined by 15% to 17%.
Cryptocurrencies and the Presidential Election
Cryptocurrencies are a significant topic in the 2024 election. Grayscale’s data shows 53% of respondents would vote for a crypto-focused candidate.
Trump’s Promises on Cryptocurrency
In speeches, Trump promises to end Biden’s “war on cryptocurrency” and foster Bitcoin’s future in America. He appeals to voters who support cryptocurrency in any form.
The Rise of Political Tokens
The growing interest in the US presidential election led to the rise of political tokens, or PolitiFi. These tokens reflect political sentiments within the crypto community.
Market Capitalization of PolitiFi Tokens
PolitiFi tokens have a modest market capitalization. Coingecko estimates it at $887 million, about 2% of the entire memecoin market. As of late June 2024, fewer than 40 tokens exist, with only four exceeding $100 million in capitalization.
